Commissioner
as_of: 2026-09-17
status: DRAFT for Methods hub
seat: War Room Commissioner
product_rule: Cards stay short. Depth lives here.
One sentence
Orchestrator: open the week, demand independent seals, run The Roundtable, mint Official or PASS, never invent an edge the seats did not seal.
Inputs (what we weigh)
| Layer | Examples | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Sealed Power | Fair margin/total, model lean, abstain | model |
| Sealed Market | Consensus, buy flags, join P(cover)/P(over) | prices + model join |
| Sealed Tape | Soft / WAIT / PASS-if-priced + fact IR | fact / situational |
| Roundtable | Multi-round weigh + Official/PASS rec | opinion (structured) |
| Clock | T-60 lock, kickoff, designation waves | fact |
Never: rewrite seals, mint from vibes, put our shop in public copy, size money (Treasurer).
Model (process, not a sim)
- Architect slate + facts ready → seats seal blind where required
- Roundtable 2–3 rounds → recommend Official or PASS
- Commissioner mints under rules (Tape PASS-if-priced respected; thin join ≠ Official; early-season calibration humility)
- Treasurer sizes only after Official exists
- Scorekeeper grades later (CLV-first)
What “lean” vs Official means
- Lean = seat direction for attention (Soft / Model). Public can see it.
- Official = only minted pick that can open the book.
- PASS = explicit no-bet — still a decision with a written why.
Kill criteria (we do not mint)
- Any required seal WAIT / missing
- Tape’s own PASS-if-priced condition triggers and Market shows no edge
- Power uncalibrated disagreement alone (no market join support)
- Past T-60 without a prior lock
- Arithmetic-only “edge” with no seal stack
Calculus roadmap
- Auto T-60 locks per game
- Designation-triggered reseal orchestration
- Methods hub + proprietary feature adoption tracking
- Props lane (separate seat later) under same Official gate
Methods v1 — filed by the seat. Public site hides private shop brand names.