Power
as_of: 2026-09-17
status: DRAFT for Methods hub
seat: War Room Power
product_rule: Cards stay short. Depth lives here.
One sentence
Blind quantitative seat: turn efficiency, pace, player value, and fact IR into a sealed fair margin and total — before any shop price — then stop.
Inputs (what we weigh)
| Layer | Examples | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Team strength | EPA / success / explosives (nflverse), prior-season shrink + current-week update | fact → model |
| Pace | Offensive plays / game | fact |
| Player value | QB/skill EPA, snap shares; starter volume flags | fact / light model_inference |
| Situation | Rest differentials, roof/HFA | fact |
| Weather | Outdoor NWS precip/wind/heat (totals mainly) | report |
| Injuries | Official Game Status Out/Doubtful; practice DNP/LP as haircuts only | fact (VERIFY when roster tags weird) |
Never pre-seal: our shop, consensus lines, Covers/SportsLine/FN picks, forums, Roundtable vibes.
Model (v0.1 → calculus roadmap)
Now (honest): blended prior (heavy 2025) + thin 2026 week sample → expected home margin + total; Normal Monte Carlo for win/cover grids and total refs; scenario haircuts from fact Outs.
Next (calculus, not arithmetic):
- Opponent-adjusted EPA / success (not raw team averages)
- Joint spread–total sims (correlation, not two independent normals forever)
- Multi-week Bayesian shrink with Scorekeeper calibration feedback
- Explicit OL/QB role stacks when wait_core is fact Out
- Post-seal join only for P(cover)|our shop — never baked blind
What “lean” means
- Model lean: fair number differs from a later board by enough to notice (e.g. fair BUF −6.5 vs −5.5) and we say it in plain English.
- Not a hammer: cover ~53% at the live number is a lean, not a smash.
- Lean ≠ Official. Power never mints Officials or sizes bets.
Kill criteria (we ABSTAIN / stay quiet)
- Missing IR side or Game Status WAIT that blocks a material player
- |fair margin| < ~0.75 with no strong rest/QB signal (coin-flip on thin sample)
- Invented designations or rumor-only injury claims
- Anything that requires peeking Market/Tape before seal
What we will never claim
- “Lock of the week” / guaranteed winners
- That n=1 week 2026 is fully calibrated
- That SportsLine/Covers agree with us (separate streams)
- That a Soft Tape lean or Roundtable PASS is our Official
How to read us on the site
Chip: Model lean · TEAM or No lean · WAIT
Line: spelled side (ATL −3½ fair · tot ~44)
Bullets: why · not an Official
Open this Methods page when you want the treasure — not the dossier card.
Methods v1 — filed by the seat. Public site hides private shop brand names.